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Turning the Tables with Luck
by: Craig Richards Lady luck is a very fickle entity with a strange and almost eerie way of
revealing herself. First bestowing favors on one person then swiftly shifting to
someone else close by, at the blink of an eye. If you’ve ever played poker at the casino, or even at home with
friends for that matter, you might just have noticed how ‘luck’
seems to travel around the table. One particular player may win hand after hand
for a series of games and then in an instant his luck will change. This is the
point at which most experienced players will sit it out, take a break or even
call it a day. For others, with the recent winning streak still fresh in their mind, a
string of losses will only make them more determined to get back on the
‘high’ usually resulting in total wipeout. Although luck is most certainly evident in every form of gambling, card
games appear to be prone to its unpredictability. The one exception is perhaps
online poker. Although luck accounts for some poker player’s ‘one
off’ online winnings, it’s generally very short lived. Having sat
in to watch real online poker in action over several months, I’ve come to
the conclusion that luck doesn’t travel very well in the electronic
atmosphere of cyber space. I’ve watched experienced online poker players win and lose steadily
all night long. I’ve sensed the mental tension between players as they
engage in a battle of wits and I’ve witnessed the luck element play its
decisive part. A bad player can beat a good player every time with luck on his
side. Some players believe you make your own luck. I’ve never quite
understood this statement, but I think it probably has something to do with self
belief. “Think lucky and you’ll be luckyâ€Â. Whichever way you look at it poker is a little bit of both luck and skill.
The luck aspect falls on the cards dealt and the skill lies in how you then play
the cards. You have to have some skill in playing poker, no one can rely
entirely on luck. You have to instictively know when to call, raise, and fold.
It takes skill to know when to play the cards and how to play them right. Generally, to be able to turn the table in your favor, you need to be able
to win at the expense of your opponent’s mistakes. The skilled player
will make fewer mistakes and will know how to press the positive expected value
of their hand against what they think their opponent may have. The unskilled
player will never realize he is beat and will call to the end. Finally, I think luck can be very situation specific. What can be more
unlucky? An opponent who in a 10-20 game is dealt two consecutive perfect cards
on the turn and river to make four of a kind and beat your full house, or an
opponent who has nine outs to make his flush on the last card to beat you at the
end of the final hand? If some players really can make their own luck, I wonder whether they have
something that we mere mortals don’t. Then again, perhaps luck is simply
a state of mind.
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doc thanks Jonathan Leger txt
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